Due to the coronavirus
Towards a new society
~with, after, and next Corona~
Nikken Sekkei Chief Design Officer Tomohiko Yamanashi
(Titles are as of the time of publication)
(Titles are as of the time of publication)
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Now, while the vivid impression of COVID-19 remains, may be the perfect time to consider architecture and cities in the post-COVID era, and the next COVID era (hereinafter simply referred to as "with," "after," and "next"). Rather than making definitive predictions about the future, this article explores the planning and design of architecture and cities in the "with," "after," and "next" eras by identifying commonalities among several possible scenarios and considering how to prepare for them.
Nikken Sekkei Senior Executive Officer Chief Design Officer Tomohiko Yamanashi
(Titles are as of the time of publication)
Learn from COVID-19, think about what comes next, and prepare.
Many things are being said about "what will happen after COVID-19." Some of them sound plausible, but many seem to be baseless assertions.
The lesson from COVID-19 is that "no one can say for sure what the future holds," and predicting the future is like gambling. It is said that when people face a disaster, they have an instinct to think negatively about what will happen next, a negativity bias, so calmly predicting the future in this new era is extremely difficult.
Rather, what we should be doing is anticipating potential future events, similar to scenario planning techniques, identifying those that are difficult to address with our current knowledge, and preparing for them.
for example,
If we can do this, we might be able to avoid the worst-case scenario. By using negativity bias to appropriately anticipate scenarios, we can focus on "commonalities" while allocating more resources to "risks," thus avoiding exhaustion from being swayed by misguided predictions.
The lesson from COVID-19 is that "no one can say for sure what the future holds," and predicting the future is like gambling. It is said that when people face a disaster, they have an instinct to think negatively about what will happen next, a negativity bias, so calmly predicting the future in this new era is extremely difficult.
Rather, what we should be doing is anticipating potential future events, similar to scenario planning techniques, identifying those that are difficult to address with our current knowledge, and preparing for them.
for example,
- Learn from this "with" and use your imagination,
- Depict multiple scenarios that will occur afterwards.
- Identify and prepare for possible "commonalities."
- Furthermore, among the new threats after COVID-19, the "risks" of the next generation,
- Identify and prepare for those with a low probability of occurring but a high impact.
If we can do this, we might be able to avoid the worst-case scenario. By using negativity bias to appropriately anticipate scenarios, we can focus on "commonalities" while allocating more resources to "risks," thus avoiding exhaustion from being swayed by misguided predictions.
Find commonalities
Let's use scenario planning to see if we can uncover any commonalities in the "after" scenario. For example, let's consider the workplace in the "after" scenario. In the "with" scenario, many people experienced working from home or participating in web conferences, and their remote work literacy increased dramatically. However, it would be a gamble to immediately conclude that "offices will become unnecessary" based on this situation. Rather than making definitive statements about the future, it's important to envision multiple possible scenarios. In this case, the following scenarios seem plausible.
Next, let's look for commonalities in these scenarios. What emerges is that in the future, both offices and homes will become workplaces, requiring a dedicated workspace for both. Furthermore, these must be interconnected through web conferencing systems and the like. In other words, the common thread in both offices and homes is the need for new spaces, technologies, and equipment that can accommodate a work style that utilizes web conferencing.
Furthermore, identifying and designing the items that are best addressed and resolved through architecture and urban planning is the preparation we need to do now.
- After that, working from home will be the main mode of work.
- As a reaction, face-to-face interaction is becoming more important, and a more office-oriented culture is spreading.
- No, no, it's about finding the right person for the right job; two different work styles coexist depending on the job type and industry.
Next, let's look for commonalities in these scenarios. What emerges is that in the future, both offices and homes will become workplaces, requiring a dedicated workspace for both. Furthermore, these must be interconnected through web conferencing systems and the like. In other words, the common thread in both offices and homes is the need for new spaces, technologies, and equipment that can accommodate a work style that utilizes web conferencing.
Furthermore, identifying and designing the items that are best addressed and resolved through architecture and urban planning is the preparation we need to do now.
How do we design architecture and cities in unpredictable times?
We will expand our scope to include cities and architecture. In fact, even before the pandemic, societal values had become more diverse and complex, making predictions more difficult. Given the increasing difficulty of prediction, in addition to the traditional planning methods of setting a master plan and working towards it, we must develop architectural and urban development methods that address the future.
One such approach is to define the completion of a city or building not by its construction, but by observing its condition after completion, making necessary adjustments repeatedly, and gradually correcting its course over time so that it fits seamlessly into the existing city. The origins of this approach can be traced back to Jacobs' "The Death and Life of Great American Cities," written in the 1960s, but this trend has recently become evident in large-scale developments such as skyscrapers. There are even bold examples of redesigning urban planning for skyscrapers using the designated urban zone system.
To implement this type of architecture and urban development that involves repeated fine-tuning and course correction, technology is needed to understand the state of buildings and cities in real time. Fortunately, the development of digital technology is proving useful. The technology used to track the movements of infected individuals using mobile phone data in the case of COVID-19 will soon be linked to architecture, allowing for complex control over buildings, and this seems to be a common thread.
One such approach is to define the completion of a city or building not by its construction, but by observing its condition after completion, making necessary adjustments repeatedly, and gradually correcting its course over time so that it fits seamlessly into the existing city. The origins of this approach can be traced back to Jacobs' "The Death and Life of Great American Cities," written in the 1960s, but this trend has recently become evident in large-scale developments such as skyscrapers. There are even bold examples of redesigning urban planning for skyscrapers using the designated urban zone system.
To implement this type of architecture and urban development that involves repeated fine-tuning and course correction, technology is needed to understand the state of buildings and cities in real time. Fortunately, the development of digital technology is proving useful. The technology used to track the movements of infected individuals using mobile phone data in the case of COVID-19 will soon be linked to architecture, allowing for complex control over buildings, and this seems to be a common thread.
Preparing for the next COVID-19 risk
Another important perspective that scenario planning teaches us is the identification and preparation for "unlikely events that, if they occur, would have significant consequences." If you think about it, both the 3.11 earthquake and the current pandemic were unexpected, yet they actually happened and had a huge impact. Preparing for these kinds of risks is just as important as identifying commonalities.
The worst risk in this "new normal," which is deeply dependent on digital technology, is the shutdown or collapse of the digital information infrastructure on which we rely. Imagine a world where mobile phones and the internet don't work at all. In the near future, when mobility is automated by AI and IT, buildings and cities are optimally controlled by IoT, and all social activities are based on digital data, the tragic consequences of the collapse of digital information infrastructure will be unimaginable.
Naturally, this infrastructure itself is designed with redundancy, autonomy, and decentralization in mind, but from a risk management perspective, it's about having a backup system that's entirely different. In architectural terms, analog, primitive, and loose aspects, such as the ability to operate manually even if automatic control fails, or ensuring openings that allow natural light and wind, serve as a risk hedge for the next generation. Ironically, the more digitalization progresses, the more essential analog "looseness" becomes.
The worst risk in this "new normal," which is deeply dependent on digital technology, is the shutdown or collapse of the digital information infrastructure on which we rely. Imagine a world where mobile phones and the internet don't work at all. In the near future, when mobility is automated by AI and IT, buildings and cities are optimally controlled by IoT, and all social activities are based on digital data, the tragic consequences of the collapse of digital information infrastructure will be unimaginable.
Naturally, this infrastructure itself is designed with redundancy, autonomy, and decentralization in mind, but from a risk management perspective, it's about having a backup system that's entirely different. In architectural terms, analog, primitive, and loose aspects, such as the ability to operate manually even if automatic control fails, or ensuring openings that allow natural light and wind, serve as a risk hedge for the next generation. Ironically, the more digitalization progresses, the more essential analog "looseness" becomes.
Opening up and connecting architecture
Pathways connecting to the surrounding area extend directly through the interior space: Nagasaki Prefectural Government Government Building
Photo: Tōtoku Noda / Gankōsha
So, in what direction should architecture and urban design, which possess both "common ground" and "flexibility," and which can accept course corrections through minor adjustments, move?
Skyscrapers, the origin of modern architecture, have developed through the realization of "artificial" technologies such as lighting, air conditioning, and elevators, striving for perfect control over them. As a result, much of modern architecture has become a closed space isolated from the outside. However, having experienced the avoidance of the "three Cs" (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) in the context of "with," and adding to that experience of the planned power outages immediately following 3.11, I believe that the common thread to consider in future building exteriors, entrances, and public passageways connecting subway stations and other buildings will be to learn from traditional Japanese architecture to enhance openness, loosely connect with the outside, and incorporate natural light and wind.
In fact, even before Corona, we had been experimenting with designs that open up the exterior of buildings, connect multiple buildings with urban cores, and incorporate exteriors and connections that accept course corrections and change shape over time.
The internet has become commonplace, and buildings are beginning to be connected through the Internet of Things (IoT). Furthermore, logistics are overlapping with the matter network, and autonomous mobility is accelerating this process. Networking not only with the digital world but also with mobility and the matter network, and simultaneously opening up to the external environment as a form of risk hedging, it seems that a common thread is emerging between the new era of cities and architecture: the creation of buildings that are open to the external environment, and the adjustment of this course to shape architecture and urban development. (See my book "To Cut or To Connect? My Worries About Architecture," TOTO Publishing.)
The explanation that resonated most with me regarding when "after" will arrive was, "It won't be when the coronavirus is medically eradicated, but when people no longer feel fear and the presence of the virus becomes a part of everyday life." Now, while we are still living with fear, I feel it's a valuable opportunity to realistically consider what "next" will be. (June 12, 2020)
Skyscrapers, the origin of modern architecture, have developed through the realization of "artificial" technologies such as lighting, air conditioning, and elevators, striving for perfect control over them. As a result, much of modern architecture has become a closed space isolated from the outside. However, having experienced the avoidance of the "three Cs" (closed spaces, crowded places, and close-contact settings) in the context of "with," and adding to that experience of the planned power outages immediately following 3.11, I believe that the common thread to consider in future building exteriors, entrances, and public passageways connecting subway stations and other buildings will be to learn from traditional Japanese architecture to enhance openness, loosely connect with the outside, and incorporate natural light and wind.
In fact, even before Corona, we had been experimenting with designs that open up the exterior of buildings, connect multiple buildings with urban cores, and incorporate exteriors and connections that accept course corrections and change shape over time.
The internet has become commonplace, and buildings are beginning to be connected through the Internet of Things (IoT). Furthermore, logistics are overlapping with the matter network, and autonomous mobility is accelerating this process. Networking not only with the digital world but also with mobility and the matter network, and simultaneously opening up to the external environment as a form of risk hedging, it seems that a common thread is emerging between the new era of cities and architecture: the creation of buildings that are open to the external environment, and the adjustment of this course to shape architecture and urban development. (See my book "To Cut or To Connect? My Worries About Architecture," TOTO Publishing.)
The explanation that resonated most with me regarding when "after" will arrive was, "It won't be when the coronavirus is medically eradicated, but when people no longer feel fear and the presence of the virus becomes a part of everyday life." Now, while we are still living with fear, I feel it's a valuable opportunity to realistically consider what "next" will be. (June 12, 2020)
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A Wooden Balcony Bridges the Indoor and Outdoor Environments: Mokuzai Kaikan
Photo: Tōtoku Noda / Gankōsha -
Connecting large-scale buildings and the environment with bioskin: NBF Osaki Building
Photo: Tokutoku Noda / Gankosha
* "Beyond Covid-19: Society, Cities, and Architecture" is a series. Going forward, architects, planners, engineers, consultants, and others will regularly share their visions from their respective professional perspectives.
